Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
